The Conservative Cat

You've probably seen this story a dozen times in movies and TV shows: a government hostile to the United States or Britain commits what appears to be an atrocity, but it turns out to be the work of hardliners on both sides who want to force a war. The truth comes out, peace is restored, and if the hero is James Bond, he gets to go home with the girl agent who works for the other side.

This story and its variations are all based on the Sane Government Theory: yes, there are dangerous people out there, but the guys at the top can be trusted. The Sane Government Theory is responsible for the general belief that diplomacy is the solution to any problem. It's also behind the Iraq Study Group's contention that Iran wanted a stable Iraq on its border. The truth is that we have seen again and again and again that Iran is supporting the insurgency.

One would think that China, given its huge economic dependence on exports, would have to behave reasonably lest it lose that export cash cow. To a certain extent, they do understand the importance of exports, which is why they've accused the US media of over-reacting to the pet food scandal and executed a top official; however, poisoned food products are a normal occurrence inside China's borders. It was only when China's trade surplus was threatened that the government chose to act.

And that, my friends, is why the Sane Government Theory doesn't work. It seems insane that a government would let its people suffer and die, but even the new, enlightened China does it. Sanctions and economic arguments are useless for world leaders who only care about themselves. If you cut off their funds, they just steal more from the citizens. If you try to help the populace so that only the crazy guys at the top take the brunt of the damage, that money gets stolen, too.

I think there's something Iran wants even more than a stable Iraq on its border-- control of both countries. If the U.S. pulls out, there's nothing to prevent Iran from invading, and just like that, 20% of the world's oil reserves will be in the hands of a megalomaniac and his insane government.

Only a crazy person would think we could neutralize that problem just by talking.

Respectfully submitted,

Ferdinand T. Cat