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January 4, 2008
Confused Americans for Truth - Iowa as Wishful Thinking
There are 2308 delegates going to the Republican convention, but the 30 that may possibly have been allocated to Mike Huckabee last night is considered tantamount to a complete victory.
This results from a basic human desire to be able to predict the future. The identity of the next President of the United States is of great import to all of us, and we'll pounce on anything that gives us advance notice so that we don't have to live with the uncertainty. As a result, we allow ourselves to be swayed by a non-binding straw poll at which only 2% of the total number of delegates is at stake. This tells us more about how the human mind works than it does about who is going to be the eventual nominee.
In 2004, John Kerry won the Iowa caucuses. Like Huckabee, Kerry looked like a dark horse for most of the previous year, so there is a precedent for believing that Huckabee's Iowa win foretells bigger and better things. There is, however, a big difference. Kerry's appeal came from the fact that he wasn't Howard Dean. Huckabee, on the other hand, is not Mitt Romney, which is not nearly as appealing as not being Howard Dean.
So, maybe Iowa is not all that it's cracked up to be. That would mean that (for example) Illinois, which has about 6 times the population of Iowa, could have some role in the nomination process. This would give me a chance to influence the election myself, since I live with four voters. My influence is something the Republican party desperately needs.
In the meantime, it's only Iowa.
Respectfully submitted,
Ferdinand T. Cat
# At Fri 2:59 AM | Permalink | Trackback URI | Comments (0) | More Confused Americans for Truth | Tags: campaign 2008 conservative Howard Dean Iowa John Kerry Mike Huckabee Mitt Romney
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